Blue Jays getting lucky with a pair of aces
Baseball Betting Lines
08/17/2010 - Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - When the Toronto Blue Jays started the year without ace Roy Halladay for the first time in 12 seasons, the mood among fans and prognosticators alike was doom and gloom. However, the Jays' young pitching staff has surprised the league by showing maturity well beyond its years.
Although the team sports a 4.12 ERA, good enough for just 17th in the majors, the number has been bloated by a spotty bullpen that has had trouble finding an identity. If you look at the horses in the starting rotation who have 115 innings pitched or more through the team's first 117 games, the ERA drops to 3.93, a number that ranks among the better staffs in the league.
ERA doesn't tell the whole story though, especially in the American League East where it seems like the Blue Birds must contend with the big bats of the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays on a nightly basis. As a team the Jays have racked up 863 strikeouts (7th in MLB), 10 shutouts (10th) and 64 quality starts (16th), while holding opponents to a .250 average (9th in MLB). Pretty impressive numbers when one considers the starting rotation has an average age in the mid-20s.
From a starting pitching standpoint the future looks very bright, but who is the real ace on this team of talented young arms? The answer to that question is definitely a matter of debate.
The year started with Shaun Marcum being placed in the No. 1 role because of some dominant pitching during the 2008 season coupled with a swift and successful return from Tommy John surgery in 2009. Marcum, the grandfather of the staff at only 28, can almost always be counted on to calm the team when he takes the mound. His surgical precision, which is a must when you consider that his fastball tops out at only 88 miles per hour, mixed with a devastating changeup has made him a consistent option at the top of the rotation. But his stuff isn't the best on the team, and he's gotten into some trouble recently when his location has suffered. Simply put, there are younger, fresher arms on the squad that have been making a case for staff No. 1.
Ricky Romero is the owner of one of those arms and his follow-up to a successful rookie season in '09 has been brilliant. The Jays are so confident in the 25-year-old sophomore that they recently signed him to a new contract that will pay him $30.1 million dollars over the next five years in order to retain his services. So far this year, the 6'0", 210-pound lefty has shaved almost a run off his '09 ERA, which now sits at an impressive 3.43. His bread- and-butter looping curve ball has been vexing batters all year, and with a fastball that touches 93 mph to go along with an improved changeup, the 6th overall pick from the 2005 draft is finally reaching his potential.
When crowning an ace, it's not just the numbers but also the workload that must be considered. With three complete games and one shutout to go along with a team-leading 153 innings pitched so far this season, Romero is fulfilling all aspects of the role.
So just as it sounds like the Blue Jays are ready to crown their new ace, a look at the roster reveals another arm with even more raw potential than Romero's. Brandon Morrow has the stuff to make big league managers salivate, and the fact that general manager Alex Anthopoulos acquired the big righty from the Seattle Mariners for fringe reliever Brandon League makes Morrow's breakout season even sweeter. The Mariners selected the 6'3", 195-pounder fifth overall back in 2006 and never gave him a chance to blossom in the starting rotation before shipping him to Toronto, an enormous mistake that has the Blue Jays reaping the rewards.
The 26-year-old can be inconsistent at times, and his 4.45 ERA reveals that he can give up runs when he has trouble finding the plate, but the talent level is staggering. With a heater in the mid-to-upper 90's, a split finger fastball, a hard breaking curveball and a developing changeup, Morrow has the tools to be special. He leads the majors among qualified starters with an insane 10.67 K/9 ratio and when he has command of all four of his pitches, he's nearly unhittable. When everything is working for Morrow, the results are scary, as evidenced by one-hitting the Rays in a masterful 17-strikeout performance that saw him come one out shy of a no-hitter on August 8.
Although his stuff is undeniable, Morrow needs to find more consistency on a start-to-start basis before being mentioned among the top pitchers in the league. His teammate, Romero, may still end up having the best pitching numbers on the team as the year closes out, but as their careers progress, one must give the edge to Morrow because of his incredibly high ceiling.
Who knows, maybe both guys end up becoming prolific starters and the Jays end up with a pair of aces anchoring the rotation for years to come. To be sure, the talent is there to make that happen.
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Horse Betting
(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).
The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.